Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.265701 0.299813 0.336783 0.379853 0.428685 0.482368 0.545917
2025-11-02 0.204750 0.247742 0.297791 0.360452 0.436950 0.527488 0.643053
2025-11-09 0.159529 0.205336 0.262154 0.338020 0.436998 0.562204 0.733342
2025-11-16 0.130430 0.177661 0.239762 0.327754 0.449846 0.614172 0.853659
2025-11-23 0.107862 0.154757 0.219808 0.317185 0.460246 0.664255 0.980006
2025-11-30 0.094650 0.142574 0.212480 0.322685 0.493596 0.751092 1.173202
2025-12-07 0.079577 0.125289 0.195094 0.310474 0.498528 0.796570 1.311853
2025-12-14 0.068775 0.112856 0.183120 0.304551 0.511972 0.856872 1.484154
2025-12-21 0.059933 0.102213 0.172363 0.298767 0.524424 0.917032 1.666211
2025-12-28 0.054749 0.096887 0.169540 0.305831 0.559734 1.021312 1.944246
2026-01-04 0.048839 0.089431 0.161955 0.303182 0.576941 1.095459 2.178723
2026-01-11 0.044462 0.084117 0.157423 0.305387 0.603387 1.190632 2.470758
2026-01-18 0.041059 0.080316 0.155462 0.312838 0.642532 1.319393 2.861398
2026-01-25 0.036067 0.072745 0.145246 0.302335 0.643645 1.371477 3.099102
2026-02-01 0.031317 0.065017 0.133676 0.287305 0.632843 1.396799 3.282652
2026-02-08 0.028042 0.059896 0.126760 0.281209 0.640699 1.464546 3.579278
2026-02-15 0.025093 0.055070 0.119815 0.273996 0.644867 1.524680 3.869938
2026-02-22 0.023524 0.053063 0.118734 0.280042 0.681290 1.667375 4.399613
2026-03-01 0.021011 0.048582 0.111496 0.270422 0.677945 1.712096 4.680364
2026-03-08 0.019134 0.045330 0.106662 0.265939 0.686831 1.789438 5.067189
2026-03-15 0.017461 0.042347 0.102072 0.261373 0.694765 1.865707 5.467483
2026-03-22 0.016587 0.041201 0.101783 0.267856 0.733369 2.031662 6.168305
2026-03-29 0.015342 0.038959 0.098466 0.265788 0.748021 2.133349 6.695087